Influence of Former Philippine President Corazon Aquino Waning, Observers Say

Former president Corazon Aquino is revered in the Philippines as the symbol of the ouster of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos. But Mrs. Aquino's repeated calls for the resignation of incumbent President Gloria Arroyo, over allegations of election fraud, have so far gone unheeded. The iconic former president's influence appears to be waning.

Last week, former president Corazon Aquino, the woman who sparked a revolt that toppled a dictatorship, joined politicians and businessmen calling for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The calls followed allegations that Mrs. Arroyo had rigged the 2004 presidential elections in her favor.

Many thought that with that, Mrs. Arroyo's days were numbered.

But the public did not take to the streets by the hundreds of thousands to demand Mrs. Arroyo step down, as they had done with two of her predecessors.

In 1986, Mrs. Aquino was the grieving widow of Benigno Aquino, Ferdinand Marcos's leading rival, who was gunned down as he returned to Manila from exile. Along with the late Cardinal Jaime Sin, Mr. Aquino called on the people to take to the streets, and they forced Mr. Marcos to flee the country in a movement that would come to be known as "People Power."

Mrs. Aquino again called the people into the streets in 2001, a move that resulted in the forced resignation of President Joseph Estrada, who was accused of massive corruption.

Political analyst Joel Rocamora, director of the private Institute for Popular Democracy, says Mrs. Aquino, widely known as Cory, listened to the wrong people this time and miscalculated the political situation.

"The people who put those things together thought that they would be enough to bring president Arroyo down, force her to resign, as it turned out, they were wrong," he said. "And I think Cory brought into that way of looking at things. I think she was made to believe if she joined the groups, she would be on the winning side."

Mrs. Aquino is a deeply religious Roman Catholic with a strong sense of right and wrong. She says she feels compelled to speak out for what she believes, no matter the cost.

"From time immemorial, I have not said anything that would command universal acceptance," she noted. "But I believe so long as I do what I believe is right, so long as I say what I believe is right for our country, then I will just accept whatever flack, whatever ugly things they will say about me."

But even if Mrs. Aquino does not have the same kind of influence she once had over Philippine political life, Mr. Rocamora says she still wields significant clout, and should not be underestimated.

"Her magic has always been with a specific segment of the population," said Mr. Rocamora. "That is the upper-middle class to upper class, and I think in that segment of the population she's still seen as a moral leader."

For the moment, Mrs. Arroyo seems to have beaten the move to force her out. But analysts say the tide could again turn against her, in which case Corazon Aquino would be seen to have chosen the right side after all.

Karzai Says His Office Receives Money from Iran

Afghan President Hamid Karzai acknowledged Monday that his office receives large cash payments from Iran, but said the money is a transparent form of aid.

President Karzai told reporters in Kabul Monday that Iran has given his office up to $975,000 for government expenses. He said the transactions were not secret and no different from cash payments from the United States.

President Karzai's comments were in response to an article in The New York Times that his chief of staff, Umar Daudzai, has been receiving payments from Iran to "promote Iran's interests" in Afghanistan's presidential palace.

Mr. Karzai said Daudzai had been accepting the money on the Afghan leader's instructions. The Times quotes unnamed sources saying Iran uses its influence to "drive a wedge" between the Afghans and their American and NATO benefactors.

The Iranian embassy in Afghanistan on Monday dismissed the report as "ridiculous and insulting."

South Korea plans an unprecedented peace-time mobilization of soldiers and police to minimize any trouble when it plays host to the leaders of the world's top 20 economies next month

South Korea's military, coast guard and police said they are preparing for all imaginable disruptions during next month's G-20 Summit in Seoul.
Those include large demonstrations, riots, terror and cyber-attacks, and attempts by rival North Korea to spoil the meeting. The commissioner general of the South Korean National Police Agency, Cho Hyun-Oh, noted Monday that some previous G-20 and other major international summits have been plagued with violence. Combining that with the aggressive reputation of South Korean demonstrators, he said, means authorities must be prepared for the worst during next month's event.
Cho predicts that protests during the G-20 Seoul Summit, though, will not be very violent, and his forces will be able to prevent the situation from getting out of hand. He is mobilizing 50,000 police officers - more than one-third of the national force - to provide security in Seoul during the summit November 11th and 12th.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff say the armed forces will go on a "Level 3" alert, which is the highest, starting at the end of this month.
The Defense Ministry is preparing for eight possible types of provocative acts by North Korea, including intrusions south of the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea. The Coast Guard will defend the Han River in Seoul. And the Air Force will be on the lookout for planes that may try to intrude into the airspace over the summit. Cho said he expects the military will be prepared to use anti-aircraft missiles in the capital should any invasions of airspace occur.
The fifth G-20 summit is expected to be the largest so far - attracting 10,000 participants, including 32 heads of government and leaders of international organizations.
The leaders attending include U.S. President Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and the heads of several European countries. In addition, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank will be there.
South Korean officials say they have ample experience in holding such an event, noting the successful 2002 World Cup and the 2005 APEC summit. Even so, they say severe traffic congestion can be expected throughout the capital during the G-20 Summit.

Political Battle Over US Pension Reform Likely to Intensify

The political battle over President Bush's plan to revamp the U.S. government pension system known as Social Security is expected to intensify over the next few weeks.

President Bush is about half way through a 60-day effort to build public support for his proposal to reform the government pension program known as Social Security.

Among his most recent stops was the Midwest state of Iowa, which has a large proportion of elderly residents. "I am talking about Social Security because I see a problem, and I believe the job of the president is to confront problems and not pass them on to future presidents or future Congress'. That is what I think you elected me for," he said.

The centerpiece of the president's plan is a proposal to allow younger workers to divert some of the taxes they pay toward their pensions into private retirement accounts that could be invested in the stock market.
But Democrats appear united in their opposition to the Bush plan, and that opposition could intensify as Congress returns to work after a two-week Easter recess.

Democrats have enlisted a wide range of special interest groups to lobby against the proposal, including labor unions and retiree organizations.

Richard Trumka is secretary-treasurer of one of the nation's largest labor organizations, the AFL-CIO. He recently spoke out against the president's Social Security plan on the C-SPAN public affairs television network.

"First of all, there is no crisis in Social Security. We have time to study this, and so it is much more important for us to think about this and get it right, than it is to try to rush through some kind of solution," he said.

Concern over the president's plan is not limited to Democrats. Some Republicans are nervous about public opinion polls that suggest growing majorities disapprove of the president's approach to Social Security, even as he campaigns on the issue around the country.

Given the poll numbers, some political experts say the time may have come for the administration to consider a compromise.

Larry Sabato is director of the Center For Politics at the University of Virginia. He compares President Bush's struggle for pension reform to former President Clinton's efforts to revamp health care in the mid-1990s.
"Bill Clinton got nothing at all after putting all his marbles [political capital] into the health care basket [reform proposal]. The same thing could happen to George Bush, if the White House does not, in the very near future, move towards some kind of compromise on Social Security," he said.

Despite the concerns, White House officials insist the president is determined to press for Social Security reform this year. They also cite public opinion polls that indicate the president has succeeded in raising awareness about the uncertain financial future of the Social Security program.

The U.N. Children's Fund has unveiled a treasure box of activities for very young children caught in emergencies

UNICEF says its new early childhood development kit is fun, stimulating and helps provide children in difficult circumstances a sense of normalcy.

　
The U.N. Children's Fund estimates 175 million children are affected by war and natural disasters every year. A large number of these children are six-years old or less. But, until now, only ad hoc recreational toys and materials have been available to help these very young children cope with their traumatic experiences.

　
UNICEF Executive Director Ann Venemann says the new development kit provides young children with resources so they can play and interact with others.

"Studies show that early childhood is the most critical period for brain development, making young children the most vulnerable to the stresses brought on by war and disasters, such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes," she said.

"Early experiences create a foundation for physical and mental health, optimal growth and lifelong learning, social emotional competencies and productivity. If there is a disruption in development, for example, through serious trauma that is not addressed early on, it could result in life-long development problems," she added.

The kit is a box containing 37 different items, for use by 50 children up to six years of age. Each kit costs $230 and is bursting with soft, pastel colored animal dolls. It also contains multi-colored puzzles, construction blocks, coloring pencils, memory games and even soap for promoting hygiene.

UNICEF says the activities are wide-ranging. They encourage development, social interaction and promote playing, drawing, and story telling.

　
Office of Emergency Programs Deputy Director Dermot Carty recalls the magical effect produced by a recreational kit upon the lives of children suffering the traumatic effects of the Indonesian tsunami.

　
"The children's lives changed immediately. I always remember when the box was opened and the response of the children," said Carty. "First of all they started looking at each other, looking for the box and then looking at each other and it resulted in smiles and then suddenly there was a rush for the box and then suddenly you had interaction. You had children laughing. They were running around. They were playing with each other ... And it was just an amazing experience to have been there to witness that. In a period of five minutes you could see the lives of 100 children changing almost in front of your face."

　

The kit was tested in Chad, Liberia, Congo Brazzaville, Jamaica, Guyana, Maldives and Iraq before being launched. Carty says UNICEF has 1,100 boxes ready to go to 18 countries and this number will grow.

A leading expert on economic development and poverty alleviation says the panic that followed the eruption of the financial crisis last year is probably over

But he warns global financial instability is likely to go on for years because nations have only come up with short-term remedies and have not addressed the structural changes needed to reform the economic system.

The director of the Earth Institute, Jeffrey Sachs, says the panic phase of the current crisis is probably over, as is the fear that the world economy could fall into a depression.

But while nations have managed to avoid the worst, he says the global economy remains on average very bad, with the poorest countries living on the edge of survival.

Sachs blames the financial crisis on a disastrously bad monetary policy and disastrously poor financial regulation.

"The crisis has its epicenter in Wall Street. If I had to point to one clear trigger of this crisis, it was the emergence of a ... completely failed and inappropriate credit default swap market, which went from zero to $62 trillion in seven years without a single regulator paying attention to it. And, that CDS market, the Credit Default Swap Market, was a kind of fairy dust that was sprinkled over the world financial system to make believe that toxic assets were safes," said Sachs.

He says it is unclear whether governments will get a properly regulated system that will be safer for everybody. He also expresses his disdain for the multimillion-dollar bonuses corporate executives receive and fears this practice will continue.

Sachs is a strong proponent of environmentally friendly technology. When the financial crisis hit last year, he says many people looked forward to a so-called green recovery.

　

He says they thought increased investment in new technology aimed at climate change mitigation and environmental conservation would salvage the global economy.

　

"This has not occurred. There has been no green recovery. There has been no significant investment in renewable energy sources. No major increase in sustainable infrastructure. What has happened is that the panic has been broken through very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, but not through structural change," Sachs said.

　
He says governments have not come up with real structural change that can give a perspective over the course of years and decades.

He says there are no coherent policies linking the macroeconomics, the environmental concerns, and the development concerns. Therefore, he says the world economy remains highly unbalanced and highly fragile.

Some economists say Indonesia is poised to become an emerging economic power similar to China and India

Economic growth slowed slightly during the worst of the global economic crisis, but now it is again expanding at a rate of over six percent a year, and Indonesia has the second-best performing stock market in Asia.
An expanding manufacturing base, an abundance of natural resources, a growing domestic market, a sound financial sector and a stable political climate all contribute to make Indonesia's economy one of the strongest in the world.
Emerging economy
Milan Zavadjil the International Monetary Fund's representative in Indonesia, says it ranks just below China and India in attracting foreign investment.
"Various investor surveys have it jumping up the rankings," Zavadjil said. "And an interesting survey puts it as the fourth most likely place for investment over the next several years among emerging markets."
The Asian Development Bank recently forecast that Indonesia will see gross domestic product growth of 6.1 percent this year, and 6.3 percent in 2011.
Zavadjil says Indonesia's financial sector was not sophisticated enough to get involved in the complicated and ultimately disastrous investments that contributed to the global economic crisis in 2008. So while much of the world was thrown into recession, the fundamentals of Indonesia's economy remained strong.
"Indonesia had a very small fiscal deficit, very small borrowing requirements, a low external government and consumer debt, adequate foreign exchange reserves," he added. "The banks were well capitalized and liquid."
Optimism for businesses
For investors, last year's peaceful presidential election is seen as ushering in a new era of political stability and optimism. Despite the bombings of two Jakarta hotels in July of 2009, government efforts to prevent terrorism have reassured the business community.
Indonesian Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo says the government's conservative fiscal policies protect investments by keeping down inflation.
"Most important we would like to manage our budget," said Martowardojo. "Yes, we will provide stimulus but we will not have a budget deficit [of] more than 1.7 percent. And I believe that is the strength of Indonesia."
Increased exports
Continued economic reforms and free trade agreements with China and other Asian countries have increased exports of commodities such as timber, coal and silver. And in some industries, such as shoe manufacturing, companies are moving factories and jobs from China to Indonesia.
Not all labor organizations agree with the country's free trade policies. Baso Rukmana, head of Indonesia's National Workers Union, says clothing manufacturers in particular are losing jobs because the government makes it too hard to compete.
Need to improve infrastructure
He says the infrastructure is not ready, the roads are not enough and there is an added cost to production, something they call under-the-table money.
Corruption remains a significant problem, and some surveys of business managers show it discourages growth. However, the IMF's Zavadjil says it is no worse than in some other Asian countries.
The finance minister says weak infrastructure, particularly the country's air and sea ports, is the most glaring problem inhibiting growth. He says the government has acted to insure that private investments in infrastructure projects that require years to complete would be secure.
"If there is any change in the policy, if there is any change of license, if there is any change of administration, will we guarantee them?. I can say now, Ministry of Finance, we are ready. We are ready to guarantee," Martowardojo said.
Although Indonesia's stock market is at record levels, the finance minister notes that other asset prices are not rising quickly, so there is little risk the economy will overheat. He says, and many economists agree, the country is likely to see annual growth of over six percent for the next few years.