Emerging nations like Brazil and China have long complained about wanting a bigger say in how global economic affairs are conducted. But so far, developing countries have been unable to unite around one of their own as a candidate to head the International Monetary Fund.
Europe, which has held the top spot at the IMF since its founding, this week lined up behind French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who announced her candidacy Wednesday and is the odds-on favorite.
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, meanwhile, in a joint statement this week called the practice of automatically selecting a European managing director obsolete. Many of those same countries, however, seem to be pulling in different directions rather than rallying around a candidate to challenge Ms. Lagarde.
Mexico has nominated its central-bank chief, Agustin Carstens, a respected economist and former deputy managing director of the IMF. No one else has been formally put forward. So far, though, Mr. Carstens has gotten little support from key emerging powers like China, India or Brazil.
South Africa has openly lobbied for one of its own, former Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. Russia said it would support Kazakhstan's central banker Grigory Marchenko. Turkey said it had at least 10 candidates suited for the job, though onetime Turkish Economy Minister Kemal Dervis has ruled himself out.
'While Europe has closed ranks around its candidate, the emerging markets are united only around the concept of making a bid for the post of IMF managing director rather than a particular candidate. This will weaken their position, so they need to act soon and decisively to agree upon a viable candidate they can all support,' said Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad.
Even from the start, some of the potential emerging-market candidates seemed unlikely to mount a serious challenge. Mr. Marchenko said he was surprised by his nomination, which he said he learned of in a text message from his prime minister. He said last week he would take the job if 'his country asked him to.'
Analysts say emerging-market nations are a more varied and less unified bloc than Europe, which has its own currency and common interests. Brazil and India have both been critical of China's policy of keeping a weak exchange-rate to boost exports.
The strongest candidate from the emerging markets so far appears to be Mr. Carstens, a 52-year-old veteran of Mexico's financial crises. Mexican officials say they are optimistic the University of Chicago-trained economist will get support from other nations in days to come.
Developing nations 'have rallied around a statement of principle that this process be transparent and open, so let's see if they can rally around a candidate that has all the qualities to lead the fund,' said one high-ranking Mexican official.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had praise for Mr. Carstens on Wednesday, saying he and Ms. Lagarde were two 'very credible' candidates. But analysts say the U.S. is likely to back Europe in a shortened selection process.
'For all of the U.S. posturing. . .they'll throw their weight behind Mrs. Lagarde,' said Desmond Lachman, a former deputy director of the IMF's policy department and now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Mr. Carstens is also having trouble getting support closer to home. OECD chief Angel Gurria, a Mexican, gave a ringing endorsement to Ms. Lagarde on Wednesday, saying the Europeans had clearly picked 'their best and brightest.' Wednesday, Chilean President Sebastian Pinera also praised Ms. Lagarde, as has Brazil.
As a former deputy director at the IMF and an orthodox neoliberal economist, Mr. Carstens may be seen by other emerging nations as too tied to the old IMF establishment. Brazilian officials say they want a reformer at the IMF who will continue the path followed by disgraced former IMF boss Dominique Strauss-Kahn in trying to convince Europe and the U.S. to give more power to emerging nations.
In an interview last week, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega failed to give Mr. Carstens an endorsement, saying only that 'I don't rule out any candidate.'
Mr. Mantega said Brazil divides candidates into two groups: more conservative and less conservative. 'We want one who is less conservative. By less conservative I mean less linked to the old IMF. We have an old IMF and a new IMF. We don't want anyone linked to the old IMF, who might cause a backslide to the ways of the old IMF.
Arvind Virmani, India's representative to the IMF, seemed to have given up hope of a challenge to Ms. Lagarde from emerging markets. 'As far as everything I've seen, including the statements of various leaders, the processes approved...I don't see the results will be any different than before,' he said.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Monday, May 9, 2011
Here Comes Baby, There Goes the Marriage
Along with shopping for sippy cups and strollers, expectant parents may want to consider another task for their to-do list: honing their marriage skills.
Numerous studies have shown that a couples' satisfaction with their marriage takes a nose dive after the first child is born. Sleepless nights and fights over whose turn it is to change diapers can leach the fun out of a relationship.
Now, a growing number of mental-health professionals are advising couples to undergo pre-baby counseling to hash out marital minefields such as divvying up baby-related responsibilities, money issues and expectations for sex and social lives. A growing number of hospitals, midwives and doulas (birth coaches who provide physical and emotional support) are teaching relationship skills alongside childbirth education classes.
About two-thirds of couples see the quality of their relationship drop within three years of the birth of a child, according to data from the Relationship Research Institute in Seattle, a nonprofit organization focused on strengthening families. Conflict increases and, with little time for adult conversation and sex, emotional distance can develop.
Men and women experience the deterioration differently: Mothers' satisfaction in their marriages plummets immediately; for men, the slide is delayed a few months. Hormonal changes, the physical demands of childbirth and nursing, and an abrupt shift from the working world to being at home with an infant may explain that, says Renay Bradley, the director of research and programming at the Relationship Research Institute.
A key source of conflict among new parents is dividing up -- and keeping score of -- who does what for the baby and the household. Counselors at Urban Balance have expectant couples make a list of every potential task -- from paying bills and cooking dinner to getting up with the baby at 3 a.m. -- and decide who is going to be responsible for each one.
'We felt better prepared,' says Mary Gould Moorhead, a 34-year-old teacher from Chicago and mother of an 8-month-old son who took the Urban Balance course with her husband last year. 'I don't think either one of us knew how much work [the baby] was going to be.'
'People spend more time decorating the nursery than preparing the relationship for the arrival of a baby,' says Joyce Marter, co-owner of Urban Balance LLC, a five-center psychotherapy practice in the Chicago area that has about 50 to 75 couples going through its $500, six-session 'pre & post baby couples counseling' program each year.
Another program, a 12-hour Bringing Baby Home workshop for expectant and new parents, developed by the Relationship Research Institute, teaches 'four steps of constructive problem solving.' They include the 'softened start-up,' a way of bringing up a problem without criticizing. For example, using 'I' statements, and saying things like 'I would appreciate it if . . .'
Richard Goodrow and Corrie Fisher found that the best way for them to resolve disagreements after their daughter was born 2 1/2 years ago was by taking long walks. Sitting and talking face to face -- where an eye roll or twinge of pain could derail the discussion -- was tough. So every week they'd put their daughter in the stroller and discuss things from how frequently to clean their apartment to Ms. Fisher's dream of going to graduate school.
'If it was skipped, it was surely missed. Tensions would rise,' says Ms. Fisher, now a 38-year-old graduate student in Boston. 'It is how we process things,' says Mr. Goodrow, a 34-year-old IT consultant and sign-language interpreter. 'Corrie and I talk about how if we buy a car, our relationship is over.'
The couple also has a weekly meeting to synch their calendars. It helps avoid miscommunication, and the resulting arguments, about, for example, who needs to work late -- and who needs to be home and watch the baby.
Well-meaning friends and mommy blogs may offer up the cliche antidotes of date nights and sex. While those certainly can't hurt, enhancing the friendship in the relationship is crucial, experts say.
For Tina Cornell and her husband, Chris Sorensen, scheduled date nights were actually stressful. 'There's all this pressure to have a meaningful conversation and quality time in a limited time frame,' says Ms. Cornell, a freelance jewelry designer and mother of two children, ages 5 and 22 months, in Chesterfield, Mass. Ms. Cornell says she and her husband stay close by making sure to take 10 or 15 minutes every day to laugh together. They'll watch bits of 'The Colbert Report' on TV and laugh about politics, she says.
The Bringing Baby Home program suggests that couples spend at least 20 minutes a day talking with each other. It directs participants to ask their partners open-ended questions that go beyond talk of household and kid logistics.
The Relationship Research Institute has trained about 800 people to lead Bringing Baby Home programs since the course's launch in 2005. The program is now offered to couples in at least 17 hospitals across the country.
One of the big parts of pre-delivery counseling is giving couples a clear idea of what they're in for. 'I make it clear that everybody struggles,' says Jean G. Fitzpatrick, a psychoanalyst in New York who began promoting 'pre-baby and postpartum marriage sessions' on her website last year.
The pre-delivery programs have shown some success.
In a 2005 study in the Journal of Family Communication, the marital quality for women taking the Bringing Baby Home workshop was relatively stable from just before their child's birth to the first birthday. Women in the control group who weren't in the program faced a marked decline in martial quality during that time.
Marital quality for men in the Bringing Baby Home group dipped from before birth to age 3 months, but rebounded by the first birthday. Men who didn't take the course saw marriage quality actually rise slightly up until 3 months, but, from there, it fell sharply until the first birthday. The study followed 38 married couples.
Another study published in 2006 in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology showed that expectant couples and new parents who participated in 24 weekly group counseling meetings experienced a much smaller decline in marital satisfaction over about five years compared with parents who didn't have the counseling. The rate of divorce, however, was the same for both. The study followed 66 couples with children and 13 childless couples. (cheap louis vuitton shoes kids didn't see a decline in marriage satisfaction.)
Ms. Cornell reminds herself that this is all temporary. 'I always look at the long-term,' she says. ''Do I want this person as a companion in 15 years, because that is when I'm going to have him back? Are we going to be enjoying our kids' graduations?''
Numerous studies have shown that a couples' satisfaction with their marriage takes a nose dive after the first child is born. Sleepless nights and fights over whose turn it is to change diapers can leach the fun out of a relationship.
Now, a growing number of mental-health professionals are advising couples to undergo pre-baby counseling to hash out marital minefields such as divvying up baby-related responsibilities, money issues and expectations for sex and social lives. A growing number of hospitals, midwives and doulas (birth coaches who provide physical and emotional support) are teaching relationship skills alongside childbirth education classes.
About two-thirds of couples see the quality of their relationship drop within three years of the birth of a child, according to data from the Relationship Research Institute in Seattle, a nonprofit organization focused on strengthening families. Conflict increases and, with little time for adult conversation and sex, emotional distance can develop.
Men and women experience the deterioration differently: Mothers' satisfaction in their marriages plummets immediately; for men, the slide is delayed a few months. Hormonal changes, the physical demands of childbirth and nursing, and an abrupt shift from the working world to being at home with an infant may explain that, says Renay Bradley, the director of research and programming at the Relationship Research Institute.
A key source of conflict among new parents is dividing up -- and keeping score of -- who does what for the baby and the household. Counselors at Urban Balance have expectant couples make a list of every potential task -- from paying bills and cooking dinner to getting up with the baby at 3 a.m. -- and decide who is going to be responsible for each one.
'We felt better prepared,' says Mary Gould Moorhead, a 34-year-old teacher from Chicago and mother of an 8-month-old son who took the Urban Balance course with her husband last year. 'I don't think either one of us knew how much work [the baby] was going to be.'
'People spend more time decorating the nursery than preparing the relationship for the arrival of a baby,' says Joyce Marter, co-owner of Urban Balance LLC, a five-center psychotherapy practice in the Chicago area that has about 50 to 75 couples going through its $500, six-session 'pre & post baby couples counseling' program each year.
Another program, a 12-hour Bringing Baby Home workshop for expectant and new parents, developed by the Relationship Research Institute, teaches 'four steps of constructive problem solving.' They include the 'softened start-up,' a way of bringing up a problem without criticizing. For example, using 'I' statements, and saying things like 'I would appreciate it if . . .'
Richard Goodrow and Corrie Fisher found that the best way for them to resolve disagreements after their daughter was born 2 1/2 years ago was by taking long walks. Sitting and talking face to face -- where an eye roll or twinge of pain could derail the discussion -- was tough. So every week they'd put their daughter in the stroller and discuss things from how frequently to clean their apartment to Ms. Fisher's dream of going to graduate school.
'If it was skipped, it was surely missed. Tensions would rise,' says Ms. Fisher, now a 38-year-old graduate student in Boston. 'It is how we process things,' says Mr. Goodrow, a 34-year-old IT consultant and sign-language interpreter. 'Corrie and I talk about how if we buy a car, our relationship is over.'
The couple also has a weekly meeting to synch their calendars. It helps avoid miscommunication, and the resulting arguments, about, for example, who needs to work late -- and who needs to be home and watch the baby.
Well-meaning friends and mommy blogs may offer up the cliche antidotes of date nights and sex. While those certainly can't hurt, enhancing the friendship in the relationship is crucial, experts say.
For Tina Cornell and her husband, Chris Sorensen, scheduled date nights were actually stressful. 'There's all this pressure to have a meaningful conversation and quality time in a limited time frame,' says Ms. Cornell, a freelance jewelry designer and mother of two children, ages 5 and 22 months, in Chesterfield, Mass. Ms. Cornell says she and her husband stay close by making sure to take 10 or 15 minutes every day to laugh together. They'll watch bits of 'The Colbert Report' on TV and laugh about politics, she says.
The Bringing Baby Home program suggests that couples spend at least 20 minutes a day talking with each other. It directs participants to ask their partners open-ended questions that go beyond talk of household and kid logistics.
The Relationship Research Institute has trained about 800 people to lead Bringing Baby Home programs since the course's launch in 2005. The program is now offered to couples in at least 17 hospitals across the country.
One of the big parts of pre-delivery counseling is giving couples a clear idea of what they're in for. 'I make it clear that everybody struggles,' says Jean G. Fitzpatrick, a psychoanalyst in New York who began promoting 'pre-baby and postpartum marriage sessions' on her website last year.
The pre-delivery programs have shown some success.
In a 2005 study in the Journal of Family Communication, the marital quality for women taking the Bringing Baby Home workshop was relatively stable from just before their child's birth to the first birthday. Women in the control group who weren't in the program faced a marked decline in martial quality during that time.
Marital quality for men in the Bringing Baby Home group dipped from before birth to age 3 months, but rebounded by the first birthday. Men who didn't take the course saw marriage quality actually rise slightly up until 3 months, but, from there, it fell sharply until the first birthday. The study followed 38 married couples.
Another study published in 2006 in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology showed that expectant couples and new parents who participated in 24 weekly group counseling meetings experienced a much smaller decline in marital satisfaction over about five years compared with parents who didn't have the counseling. The rate of divorce, however, was the same for both. The study followed 66 couples with children and 13 childless couples. (cheap louis vuitton shoes kids didn't see a decline in marriage satisfaction.)
Ms. Cornell reminds herself that this is all temporary. 'I always look at the long-term,' she says. ''Do I want this person as a companion in 15 years, because that is when I'm going to have him back? Are we going to be enjoying our kids' graduations?''
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